This report is part of our Retail Tracker | Prime series, delivering monthly, data-driven insights into the performance of Australia’s largest shopping centres. By leveraging advanced analysis of mobile signal data alongside and other third-party and open-source data sets, it reveals how customers interact with these destinations, highlighting trends in customer behaviour and projecting expected sales performance. With a focus on the country’s 27 largest centres (those over 100,000-sqm of gross lettable area), Retail Tracker | Prime provides a clear view of the factors driving retail performance, from changing customer behaviours to emerging economic influences.
Sales Trends
Projected retail sales from Retail Tracker | Prime centres grew to $29.1 billion in November. This represents an annual sales growth of 7.1%, equating to an average monthly growth rate of 0.6%. November's monthly growth rate of 0.5% therefore reflects a slight moderation from expected performance over the last 12-months, but Australia's largest shopping centres clearly remain in a strong position in the run up to Christmas.
Our sales growth projections are driven by a combination of rising customer numbers and inflation-driven nominal growth, both of which should buoy total retail turnover. Our expectation is that Australia’s largest shopping centres are capturing this value not just from rising prices but also by maintaining strong engagement and adapting to changing customer behaviours.
Queensland and Victoria remain standout performers, delivering above-average annual growth of 8.6% and 7.7%, respectively. New South Wales, Western Australia, and South Australia have recorded slightly below-average growth; however, their results remain robust, underscoring the resilience of major shopping centres across the country.
Regional Performance
Regional variation in performance highlights the growing importance of destination-based retail. Strong growth in Victoria and Queensland is helping drive national results, with key centres attracting customers from expanded trade areas:
Victoria: Leading centres such as Chadstone and Highpoint continue to set the pace, capitalising on their roles as flagship destinations with broad regional appeal.
Queensland: Centres like Pacific Fair and Robina Town Centre are benefiting from tourism recovery and increasing customer engagement from wider catchments.
New South Wales: Performance remains strong but tempered at centres such as Westfield Parramatta and Macquarie Centre, where competitive pressures have softened growth slightly.
Western Australia: Karrinyup Shopping Centre and Westfield Carousel are key players, attracting customers from extended travel distances, demonstrating the state’s growing demand for lifestyle-driven retail.
South Australia: Adelaide’s Westfield Marion remains a steady performer, solidifying its importance as the state’s dominant retail destination.
Customer Behaviour
A closer look at customer behaviour reveals several noteworthy trends:
Expanding Catchment Areas: Shopping centres are attracting customers from beyond traditional trade areas, signalling a shift towards destination-based shopping. Centres such as Chadstone and Pacific Fair are drawing customers well outside their main trade areas, reinforcing their status as major retail hubs.
Tourism Recovery: Both domestic and international tourism are supporting customer growth. Queensland centres—particularly Pacific Fair and Robina Town Centre—and Sydney’s Westfield Bondi Junction are key beneficiaries, with increasing tourism volumes adding to customer strength.
Evolving Habits: While visit frequency and dwell times have declined slightly, total customer volumes continue to increase, reflecting a broader customer base. This shift highlights the growing appeal of shopping centres as lifestyle and experiential destinations, driving broader engagement.
Conclusion
Australia’s retail sector continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability, with November's month-on-month growth rate of 0.5% showcasing the strength of shopping centres in capturing customer demand.
However, this growth—driven in part by expanding customer bases—may not be sustainable indefinitely.
Catchment Expansion Limits: The current trend of attracting customers from further afield will eventually stabilise as trade areas become saturated. Moving forward, sustained growth will rely more on increasing spending per customer and driving higher visit frequencies.
Tourism Dependence: While domestic and international tourism recovery is supporting strong performance, it introduces volatility tied to external economic conditions, which could pose risks to long-term stability.
Nevertheless, the ability of Australia’s largest shopping centres to adapt and innovate—focusing on lifestyle experiences and enhancing customer engagement—will be critical in sustaining momentum. Centres that can transition from relying on customer base expansion to driving deeper value from their existing customers will be best positioned for long-term success.
For investors and retailers seeking a deeper understanding of Australian retail destinations, Loculyze provides the actionable insights you need to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Contact us to explore the customer interactions shaping your next opportunity.
Comments